overestimate

That’s a reference to the Dunning-Kruger effect — you know, the tendency of those willfully or unalterably ignorant to vastly overestimate their abilities and/or intelligence.

The Dunning-Kruger effect is the tendency for people to overestimate their level of knowledge in a subject they know little about.

Even real productivity enhancements have a price, and it could be that the hyperscalers and AI companies have overestimated the potential revenue that companies will be willing to spend on the technology.

Newcastle had underestimated Unai's commitment to Villarreal and overestimated their own importance as a club.

Moscow both overestimated the Wagner Group’s strength as a power in Africa, now in shambles, and underestimated its potential to threaten the Russian government, as it did with an aborted coup.