surplus

And after two major overseas wars, the 2008-09 financial crisis, subsequent sluggish growth, and a pandemic, the U.S. budget swung from surplus at the turn of the century to deficits previously seen only in wartime.

The growth recovery that began thanks to the Carter-Reagan reforms produced four consecutive budget surpluses in the second Clinton term.

“There could still be an international oil surplus, but it may be less than the forecasted magnitude.”

Aluminum has been in surplus for most of the past two decades as China—the world’s biggest supplier and consumer of the metal—aggressively added production capacity using cheap coal-fired power.

The U.S. needs China to supply both cheap consumer goods and recycle its trade surplus into the Treasury market, which helps keep in check everything from government borrowing to mortgage costs.