stagflation

A divided committee, missing data and a whiff of stagflation present a choice between two paths—each with drawbacks.

This, time may, in fact, be different—we may have a more sustained selloff driven by a recession, a geopolitical crisis, or even stagflation.

First, the Fed should discard its forecast of stagflation in the next couple of years, as if subpar growth and inflation 40% above target is the best that can be done.

The divide is rooted in the unusual state of the economy: simultaneous upward pressure on inflation and stagnant job growth, a combination sometimes called stagflation.

The outlook for gold remains optimistic, supported by U.S. dollar weakness, lower interest-rate expectations, and stagflation concerns.