probability

We’ve experimented with retirement simulations of our own, but we struggle to get the projected probability of success below 90%, much less find a realistic path toward exhausting our assets over the next 30 years.

From MarketWatch ● Oct. 29, 2026

Money markets price in an 82% probability of a hike in December, according to LSEG.

From The Wall Street Journal ● Oct. 29, 2026

Or, as the OBR puts it: "The outlook for the economy and the public finances is uncertain, with significantly better or worse outcomes of broadly equal probability."

From BBC ● Oct. 28, 2026

A high probability "is not a promise," Hurt said.

From Barron's ● Oct. 27, 2026

In fact, as the probability of a strike grew larger and larger, he left Boston without telling anyone where he was going.

From "1919 The Year That Changed America" by Martin W. Sandler

Kalshi said its markets offer unique data distinct from polling, that probabilities do not guarantee outcomes and that efforts to manipulate odds are canceled out by other buyers.

From Barron's ● Oct. 27, 2026

“Hiking probabilities took a leg down when tech-sector credit seemed to be under pressure,” said strategists at British brokerage Standard Chartered Global Research, in a note to clients.

From The Wall Street Journal ● Oct. 27, 2026

New features for TV audiences attempted to enhance the viewer experience, with athlete headshots, win probabilities and projected finishing positions flashing up on screen.

From BBC ● Sep. 14, 2026

Softer inflation readings in June and July had eased pressure on the Fed to raise rates in September, with market-implied probabilities of a hike falling below 40% earlier this month.

From The Wall Street Journal ● Aug. 28, 2026

Still, the point is that all kinds of decisions can be cast into this framework and call for the informal evaluation of probabilities.

From "Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences" by John Allen Paulos