forecaster

So far, those initial forecasts were worse than what has actually taken place.

When these forecasts turn out to be inaccurate, many turn against survey researchers, as we’ve recently seen.

Some of your choices will depend on data you gathered from other sources, such as the weather forecast.

Say the final polling averages miss by a bit more than 3 points on average, as our forecast assumes.

We love our sports forecasts here at FiveThirtyEight, but one of the things that make the games great is when a team comes along and takes prognosticators by surprise.

I use a very similar process for my Google Sheets addon Forecast Forge, but instead of returning a Lighthouse score it returns a machine learning powered forecast for whatever numbers you put into it.

Maybe we’re too scrambled by hope to see a favorable forecast as anything but a foregone conclusion — a Nate accompli if you will — and too prone to disappointment to see an unlikely occurrence as anything but a system failure.

“This forecast comes as a second wave of the pandemic is unleashing yet more uncertainty and dashing our hopes for a quick rebound,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, the Commission’s economy chief, in a statement.

Well below analyst forecasts, the figure reflects the uphill battle facing the recovery.

Many economists are marking down their forecasts for growth, at least slightly, in the final months of 2020 and early 2021, as uncertainty and covid-19 cases mount.