wind shear

This band formed along the axis of most unstable air, and it also had access to very strong, deep winds that increased in altitude and changed direction with height, generating what’s known as wind shear.

It’s possible the storms will not be as intense and likely to spin as they near the metro area due to less wind shear, or turning of the winds with altitude.

Stronger tornadoes tend to favor these shoulder months given increased wind shear, a critical ingredient for tornadoes, compared to the summer.

The combination of an unstable atmosphere and modest amounts of wind shear suggests that clusters of thunderstorms will self-organize into strong, long-lasting aggregates later Thursday afternoon and evening.

It’s the strong wind shear, in the setting of moderately unstable air and with a front that will trigger showers and thunderstorms, that raises the concern for severe weather.

Climate change increases the available energy, but reduces the wind shear, making the net result hard to predict.

On the other hand, wind shear is expected to decrease as the poles get warmer.

Second, you need those layers to be traveling at different speeds or in different directions, a phenomenon called wind shear.

Wind shear may decrease in a warmer world and that could mean fewer tornadoes.

So which influence wins out—increasing water vapor or decreasing wind shear?