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Railcar loadings, business surveys and cardboard-box demand are just some of the things that can offer clues.

Gold’s run-up began almost three years ago, fueled by central banks and Chinese investors loading up on bullion.

This time last year, for example, making Mama’s cheese-filled chicken meatballs often meant loading the needed machinery onto a truck for a more than 90-minute commute between factories in New York and New Jersey.

"When loading our belongings on a cart, I put my children on top of it all and tell them to play with the items, like the kitchen stuff," Hadeel told me.

This was partly due to "front loading" of activity as firms sought to complete deals before new US tariffs kicked in.